|
< Coincident Index >
 The Coincident CI went up by 0.7 percent from the previous month.
 The Cyclical Component of Coincident CI, which reflects current business conditions, grew 0.3 points from the previous month.
|
|
2006 |
|
April |
May |
June |
July |
Aug. |
Sep.p |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
○ Coincident Index (Month-on-month, %) |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
-0.3 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
|
○ Cyclical Component of Coincident CI |
100.0 |
99.9 |
99.8 |
99.0 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
100.8 |
101.1 |
|
- Change from the Previous Month (p) |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
-0.8 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
< Leading Index>
The Leading CI grew by 0.7 percent from the previous month.
The 12-month Smoothed Change in Leading CI, which predicts the turning point of economic trends, rose by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
|
|
2006 |
|
April |
May |
June |
July |
Aug. |
Sep.p |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
○ Leading Index (Month-on-month, %) |
-0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
|
○ 12-month Smoothed Change in Leading CI (%) |
5.8 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
|
- Change from the Previous Month (%p) |
-0.8 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
|
The Industrial Production Index recorded 152.6 (SA, 2000=100), down 1.4 percent from the previous month. The Not Seasonally Adjusted Index marked 159.5 (NSA, 2000=100), up 6.3 percent from the same month last year.
< Industrial production trend >
|
|
2005 |
3/4 |
Nov. |
2006 |
|
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
Sep. |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Index |
Seasonally Adjusted |
- |
133.6 |
144.0 |
145.2 |
144.6 |
146.2 |
150.9 |
154.7 |
152.6 |
|
Not Seasonally Adjusted |
134.1 |
130.4 |
150.1 |
142.4 |
146.0 |
144.2 |
154.2 |
150.2 |
159.5 |
|
Percent Change |
Over the Previous Month (Quarter) |
- |
3.2 |
3.9 |
3.1 |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
3.1 |
2.5 |
-1.4 |
|
Year-on-year |
6.3 |
7.1 |
11.8 |
12.0 |
10.9 |
10.6 |
16.5 |
4.5 |
6.3 |
|
Working Day Adjusted |
6.9 |
7.1 |
12.7 |
10.2 |
11.4 |
9.8 |
10.9 |
11.8 |
6.2 |
< Shipment >
The Producer's Shipment Index recorded 146.3 (SA, 2000=100), a drop of 1.0 percent from the previous month. The Not Seasonally Adjusted Index marked 152.5 (NSA, 2000=100), an increase of 4.2 percent from the same month last year.
< Shipment trend >
|
|
2005 |
3/4 |
Nov. |
2006 |
|
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
Sep. |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Index |
Seasonally Adjusted |
- |
131.4 |
140.7 |
139.6 |
139.3 |
140.7 |
144.3 |
147.8 |
146.3 |
|
Not seasonally Adjusted |
131.7 |
128.0 |
146.3 |
137.0 |
140.8 |
138.9 |
149.0 |
143.2 |
152.5 |
|
Percent Change |
Over the Previous Month (Quarter) |
- |
3.0 |
4.1 |
2.0 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
-1.0 |
|
Year-on-year |
5.6 |
6.4 |
9.8 |
9.1 |
8.4 |
8.5 |
15.1 |
2.1 |
4.2 |
The Domestic Shipment Index increased by 3.5 percent, and the Export Shipment Index increased by 5.2 percent year-on-year.
|
|
2005 |
3/4 |
Nov. |
2006 |
|
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
Sep. |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Domestic shipment |
2.3 |
4.2 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
4.7 |
3.3 |
13.5 |
-0.6 |
3.5 |
|
Export shipment |
10.3 |
9.5 |
14.2 |
12.4 |
13.7 |
15.4 |
16.8 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
< Inventory >
The Producer's Inventory Index stood at 133.1 (SA, 2000=100), which decreased 0.8 percent from the previous month. The Not Seasonally Adjusted Index increased by 7.6 percent from the same month last year to 131.9 (NSA, 2000=100).
< Inventory trend >
|
|
|
2006 |
|
June |
July |
Aug. |
Sep. |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Index |
Seasonally Adjusted |
134.4 |
135.3 |
132.6 |
133.3 |
134.2 |
133.1 |
|
Not Seasonally Adjusted |
133.2 |
135.4 |
131.8 |
131.1 |
131.7 |
131.9 |
|
Percent Change |
Over the Previous Month (Quarter) |
0.4 |
0.7 |
-2.0 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
-0.8 |
|
Year-on-year |
7.2 |
6.9 |
7.4 |
6.8 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
|
Inventory rate |
95.9 |
100.4 |
94.2 |
92.7 |
91.3 |
91.4 |
< Manufacturing Operation Ratio >
The Manufacturing Average Operation Ratio stood at 82.4 percent, which increased by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month.
|
|
2006 |
|
May |
June |
July |
Aug. |
Sep. |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Average Operation Ratio |
80.6 |
82.0 |
76.8 |
80.7 |
84.1 |
81.5 |
82.4 |
|
Change from the Previous Month |
1.6 |
1.4 |
-5.2 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
-2.6 |
0.9 |
The Operation Ratio Index recorded 105.0 (SA, 2000=100), which rose by 1.2 percent from the previous month. The Not Seasonally Adjusted Index marked 109.5 (NSA, 2000=100), which rose by 0.7 percent from the same month last year.
|
|
2006 |
|
May |
June |
July |
Aug. |
Sep. |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Index |
Seasonally Adjusted |
102.7 |
104.4 |
97.8 |
102.8 |
107.1 |
103.8 |
105.0 |
|
Not Seasonally Adjusted |
106.0 |
105.6 |
94.8 |
97.8 |
109.4 |
101.1 |
109.5 |
|
Percent Change |
Month-on-month |
2.0 |
1.7 |
-6.3 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
-3.1 |
1.2 |
|
Year-on-year |
1.9 |
1.9 |
-6.9 |
1.7 |
11.4 |
-3.6 |
0.7 |
The Production Capacity Index stood at 123.9 (NSA, 2000=100), up 1.6 percent year-on-year.
|
(2000=100, year-on-year, %) |
|
|
|
2005 |
3/4 |
Nov. |
2006 |
|
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
Sep. |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Production Capacity Index |
119.0 |
118.9 |
122.0 |
122.1 |
122.3 |
122.3 |
122.2 |
123.8 |
123.9 |
|
Year-on-year |
3.4 |
2.9 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
3.6 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
|
· Semiconductors |
15.9 |
13.9 |
25.8 |
27.1 |
22.2 |
16.3 |
13.4 |
12.4 |
7.9 |
|
· Textiles |
-8.5 |
-9.2 |
-10.0 |
-8.6 |
-6.0 |
-7.2 |
-7.4 |
-9.9 |
-11.0 |
|
3. Consumption Trend |
The Consumer Goods Trade Index marked 127.2, up 1.2 percent from the previous month. The Not Seasonally Adjusted Index marked 130.4, up 4.1 percent from the same month last year.
< Consumer Goods Trade Trend >
|
|
2005 |
3/4 |
Nov. |
2006 |
|
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
Sep. |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Index |
Seasonally Adjusted |
- |
119.8 |
122.3 |
120.8 |
123.6 |
122.2 |
124.0 |
125.7 |
127.2 |
|
Not Seasonally Adjusted |
118.6 |
116.5 |
125.3 |
119.2 |
124.1 |
119.1 |
125.6 |
126.5 |
130.4 |
|
Percent Change |
Over the Previous Month (Quarter) |
- |
2.1 |
2.9 |
-1.3 |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
-0.5 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
|
Year-on-year |
3.9 |
4.4 |
6.8 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
2.2 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
< Major Indicators in Industrial Activities >
|
|
2005 |
2006 |
|
Annual |
3/4 |
Nov. |
1/4 |
2/4 |
3/4 |
Sep. |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Production |
Industrial Production Index |
Over the previous period |
- |
3.2 |
3.9 |
3.1 |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
3.1 |
2.5 |
-1.4 |
|
Year-on-year |
6.3 |
7.1 |
11.8 |
12.0 |
10.9 |
10.6 |
16.5 |
4.5 |
6.3 |
|
|
Working Day Adjusted |
6.9 |
7.1 |
12.7 |
10.2 |
11.4 |
9.8 |
10.9 |
11.8 |
6.2 |
|
· Manufacturing |
6.2 |
7.4 |
12.0 |
12.6 |
11.4 |
10.9 |
17.0 |
4.8 |
6.5 |
|
(Heavy Chemical Industry) |
8.4 |
9.4 |
15.0 |
14.7 |
14.0 |
13.0 |
18.9 |
7.2 |
7.7 |
|
(Light Industry) |
-2.8 |
-1.1 |
-1.0 |
3.3 |
0.1 |
1.8 |
8.9 |
-6.4 |
0.4 |
|
Producer's Shipment Index |
5.6 |
6.4 |
9.8 |
9.1 |
8.4 |
8.5 |
15.1 |
2.1 |
4.2 |
|
· Domestic |
2.3 |
4.2 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
4.7 |
3.3 |
13.5 |
-0.6 |
3.5 |
|
· Export |
10.3 |
9.5 |
14.2 |
12.4 |
13.7 |
15.4 |
16.8 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
|
Producer's Inventory Index |
2.4 |
5.8 |
3.0 |
3.7 |
7.2 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
|
Average Operation Ratio |
79.8 |
79.9 |
82.1 |
82.0 |
80.5 |
80.5 |
84.1 |
81.5 |
82.4 |
|
Production Capacity |
3.4 |
2.9 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
3.6 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
|
Consumption |
Consumer Goods Trade |
Over the previous period |
- |
2.1 |
2.9 |
-1.3 |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
-0.5 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
|
Year-on-year |
3.9 |
4.4 |
6.8 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
2.2 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
|
Shipment of Domestic Consumer Goods |
2.1 |
5.1 |
8.1 |
6.5 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
13.6 |
-0.1 |
3.7 |
|
Investment |
Equipment |
Equipment Investment Index |
3.4 |
1.1 |
6.6 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
10.0 |
15.3 |
6.4 |
5.3 |
|
Domestic Machinery Orders Received |
1.5 |
14.0 |
11.7 |
11.2 |
20.8 |
15.6 |
34.7 |
35.1 |
11.5 |
|
Construction |
Domestic Construction Completed |
5.7 |
3.8 |
11.3 |
5.8 |
1.4 |
6.4 |
16.0 |
7.5 |
7.4 |
|
Domestic Construction Orders Received |
9.5 |
15.8 |
3.2 |
-9.7 |
-14.1 |
36.2 |
94.1 |
1.5 |
44.2 |
|
Note) Data on inventory were collected and compiled at the end of the month, quarter, and year. Data on Domestic Machinery Orders Received(Excluding vessels), Domestic Construction Completed and Domestic Construction Orders Received were collected and compiled at current value. |
|
< Composite Indexes of Business Indicators >
|
|
2006 |
|
July |
Aug. |
Sep.p |
Oct.p |
Nov.p |
|
Coincident Index (Month-on-month) |
-0.3 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
|
Cyclical Component of Coincident CI |
99.0 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
100.8 |
101.1 |
|
· Change from the Previous Month |
-0.8 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
|
Leading Index (Month-on-month) |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
|
12-month Smoothed Change in Leading CI |
4.3 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
|
· Change from the Previous Month |
-0.5 |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
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