- A Study on the Reason for the Low Interest Rate and the Possibility of Market Structure Change
- ResearcherJinwoong Kim
- 구분Vol 26(1)
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This study tests the following two research hypotheses related with a low interest rate phenomenon. The first research hypothesis set by Ramsey's (1928) theory is "a slowdown in productivity growth leads to a decrease in household consumption (increase in savings), which in turn leads to a slowdown in the real rate of return of capital, that is, a decrease in the real interest rate.". The second research hypothesis is related with the possibility of change in the market structure due to a fall in interest rates (Liu, Mian, and Sufi, 2019), and set as “the stock returns of industry leaders increase relatively more than those of industry followers.”. According to the empirical results for the first hypothesis, the traditional causal pathway holds as the slowdown in the productivity growth rate has a significant effect on decrease in consumption, followed by decline in real interest rate. In the second test, it is analyzed that the market structure may change due to the occurrence and continuation of low interest rates, as industry leaders experience significantly additional stock returns compared to industry followers in case of lower interest rates.
Key words: Low interest rate, Productivity, Asymmetry, Impulse response, Panel data analysis